According to CME FedWatch data, traders have given up on an April rate cut, with a 92.8% probability of rates staying unchanged. Aside from the U.S., several other major central banks that were preparing to gradually cut rates are now turning hawkish as well— Bank of England: Unanimously voted to keep the benchmark rate unchanged. Markets are pricing in two rate hikes this year, each by 25 basis points. Europe: More sensitive to energy price shocks, with markets betting on at least one rate hike this year. Reserve Bank of Australia: Already raised rates, and markets are betting on another 65 basis points this year. South Korea and India: Markets are pricing in four rate hikes each over the next two years. One war has completely upended global monetary policy, and asset pricing is swinging back and forth between two starkly different scenarios: "stagflation" and "ceasefire." In this kind of environment, the riskiest move is to bet on a one-sided direction. Don’t try to get fancy with reckless moves—keeping your hands off is the best strategy!