Murphy
Murphy|3月 21, 2026 04:26
If you lose 50% of your BTC, would you still sell it? I think most of my friends' answers should be negative - 'I'm afraid of buying yarn in stock!'. But unfortunately, some people turn "floating losses" into "real losses" and leave at the cost of losing $1 billion. Can you imagine? When reviewing the data of the past week, an abnormal behavior caught my attention: 1. On March 11th and 13th, when BTC rebounded to $7-7.1w, a group of whales sold (spent) the BTC they had bought 6-12 months ago, with each whale address holding an average of over 1000 BTC (Figure 1). 2. In these two days, they distributed 24867 and 17818 BTC respectively (Figure 2). 3. Especially on March 11th, the average realized loss ratio reached -50% (Figure 3). That is to say, compared to the cost, it has been halved. On March 13th, the realized loss ratio was within -10%. 4. According to this calculation, the chips sold on March 11th were bought between May and July of 2025, while the chips sold on March 13th were bought at the lowest point of BTC's periodic correction due to the tariff crisis on April 7-8, 2025. One is the despair after severe losses, and the other is the precise bottom fishing and roller coaster ride, both of which ultimately leave the market, leaving one feeling deeply saddened. Afterwards, on March 17th, MSTR announced another purchase of 22337 BTC (Figure 4), digesting most of this excess supply. If it weren't for the strong demand for MSTR, BTC might have already returned to 60000. However, this abnormal phenomenon also alerted me. Although the early profit chips were distributed less, once the price rebounds, there will still be loss chips emerging to put pressure on the market. If MSTR also loses its purchasing power, then .....) With such resolute determination, I don't know if we have seen potential risks that we haven't seen yet, but at least it shows that the current market sentiment is still extremely fragile, causing investors who have held it for nearly a year to suffer and gradually lose patience. This is similar to July 2022 (Figure 3)!
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