Today's homework is a bit difficult. On the one hand, it is the escalation of the battle between the United States and Iran, and on the other hand, Powell's more hawkish remarks. Let's talk about the battle first. Although the IEA has released oil to lower oil prices, Iran is preparing to escalate the war. The market is more concerned about the impact on industry and energy, and oil prices have risen again. Currently, the price of US oil has returned to $99 and may surge to $100 tomorrow, although Powell did not explicitly state the impact of oil prices. However, it did admit that the rise of oil prices may push up inflation. Although this has been expected by the Federal Reserve, investors will still have a headache. Iran's tenacity may exceed Trump's imagination. Although Trump says every day that the war will end soon, there is no sign of an end to it, let alone the Strait of Hormuz. Although Powell denied the possibility of a short-term interest rate hike, he basically agreed with the expectation of a possible rate cut within the year. He even believed that AI has increased demand for data centers and inflation, which is another reason why interest rates will not be cut in the short term. Secondly, tariffs, he believes that the impact of war may be short-term. The key still depends on the second half of the year, the first half is really a painful mode. Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, under the dual pressure of oil prices and Powell, the price of BTC still experienced a downward fluctuation today, which is quite interesting. Those who were talking about the bull market yesterday are now talking about the bear market. In fact, the main narrative now is still the volatile market brought by the war. As the war escalates, the market will be sluggish when oil prices rise, and in turn, the market will have a little vitality. The chip structure remains stable as always, although the price is not very good, most investors still have no interest in changing hands. In the short term, it depends on the outcome of the war. Bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits