金十数据|Mar 18, 2026 17:55
Market betting that Powell's press conference will start with "good afternoon" and inflation will become a high-frequency word. On March 19th, Polymarket traders are betting that inflation, the oil market, and energy costs will be hot topics at Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's press conference today. The following are the hottest bets on the prediction market platform so far, as well as the implied probabilities based on event contract prices: mentioning "inflation" at least 40 times, with a probability of 82%, and mentioning the word at least 50 times, with a probability of 68%; Mentioning 'Food/Energy' at least 3 times has a probability of 93%; The probability of mentioning 'Gold/Oil' is 96%. The platform also shows that Powell has a 98% chance of greeting those present with his standard greeting "Good afternoon". Under normal circumstances, the market's "superstitious" belief is that Powell's opening statement with "Good afternoon" often leans towards the eagle; If we start with "Hello everyone", it will be a bit more dovish.
Share To
Timeline
HotFlash
APP
X
Telegram
CopyLink