🚨BREAKING: US recession probability is about to cross 50%. Since the Iran War began, oil has surged ~60% from $70 to nearly $120 a barrel in under 3 weeks. Moody's expects the next update to push recession odds past 50%, a level not seen outside an active recession. That's a +15 point surge in just 6 months. The chart below tells you everything you need to know. Every single recession since WW2, except COVID, was preceded by an oil spike. History is rhyming.(Coin Bureau)