Murphy
Murphy|Mar 18, 2026 04:39
A cruel fact: is the upper limit of total quantity the king? Recently, I have been organizing data on some mainstream coins and large cap altcoins, hoping to screen out high-quality targets that can withstand the test of time and the community in the bear bottom range. I also discovered some interesting things and would like to share and communicate with my friends: Who can rise the most? If we start from the last bear bottom (December 1, 2022) until today, among the four mainstream currencies, BTC has accumulated a return of about+337.8%; ETH +82.9%; SOL +604.2%; BNB +129.4%; So, only SOL has outperformed Bitcoin in this bull market. But there is a special historical background behind this: the detonation of the FTX/Alameda "nuclear bomb" led SOL to complete an epic panic clearing. Who is the most resistant to decline? If calculated from the previous bull peak (November 1, 2021) until today: BTC returns approximately+21.8%; ETH -46.0%; SOL -53.4%; BNB +21.8%; That is to say, if you impulsively buy the target at the wrong time, it is highly likely that you will not be able to outperform Bitcoin, both mainstream and altcoins. It also indicates that besides BTC, BNB is also capable of crossing bull and bear markets; Rise when rising, resist when falling; Suitable for long-term holding across cycles (note: the various airdrop benefits obtained from holding BNB are not calculated here). Who can reach new highs repeatedly? Among the four mainstream currencies, only BTC and BNB have surpassed the peak of the previous cycle in this cycle; ETH and SOL cannot be calculated. And among the large cap altcoins, they are even rarer. For example, the few currencies I have been following, including DOGE, AAVE, LINK, and AVAX, have not made any breakthroughs, only a very small number of currencies such as ZEC, XRP, and TRX have reached or surpassed them. Is the upper limit of total quantity the rule? All currencies that can break new highs have a common characteristic - the upper limit of the total amount; BTC goes without saying; BNB initially had 200 million, but Binance continued to destroy it, reducing the target to 100 million. Both ZEC and XRP have a total limit. However, currencies without a total limit, including ETH, SOL, and DOGE, failed to break through the previous high point. This is similar to the situation where the vast majority of altcoins do not have a total limit and cannot break through the previous high. ---------------------------------- With the changes in participants and fund structures in the cryptocurrency market, it is worth carefully considering whether there will be enough funds to sustain the release of these currencies and a large number of early profit chips in the next cycle, or whether there will be new narratives to create enough demand. In my personal opinion, for holding large positions across cycles, BTC and BNB should have the highest certainty; Mid term trend trading, choosing ETH, SOL, or other ALT at a certain time, may have more outstanding performance than BTC.
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