[The probability of a US-Iran ceasefire before April 30 on Polymarket has dropped to 36%] Odaily Seer monitoring shows that the probability of a US-Iran ceasefire before April 30 on Polymarket has dropped to 36%, a 43% decrease this month. This probability had reached a peak of over 75% in early March before declining sharply. Odaily Seer will continue to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before pricing.