The current state of the cryptocurrency market is that even if it rises, it won't rise much, and if it falls, it won't fall down. It's stuck in this position, neither up nor down. Lao Yu believes that there are two reasons for the current volatile market trend. The first reason is that individual investors are flat and do not follow the ups and downs. We usually think that good news equals an increase, while bad news equals a decrease. In fact, the logic is not like this. In the eyes of the market makers, the logic is: when good/bad news comes, whether it is profitable or not will guide the rise/fall. Unless encountering a black swan like 1011 or the pandemic, no one knows what will happen next. Let's run first and then talk. Nowadays, most retail investors in the market are already in a semi flat or completely flat state, and they don't want to buy oil or salt. Now is the window period for individual investors to rest and recuperate. By the way, let's clear the leverage. The second reason is that the direction of the two main trading lines in the market is still unclear. On the Iranian side, releasing reserve oil can only temporarily ease oil prices. As long as Iran is stuck in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices will still rise. Even oil prices alone can make Trump sick. The next escalation of the Iran incident will be marked by the official deployment of ground forces by the United States. The second trading thread is the candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chairman, who still gives the impression of being hawkish until Kevin Walsh officially speaks out. It was not until he attended the hearing and personally expressed his bias towards the Federal Reserve's policies that the market felt the boots had landed. When Kevin Walsh will attend the hearing is also unknown. Before the situation escalates, the big pie continues to fluctuate up and down by 10 points, keeping an eye on the market with little movement. If the Strait of Hormuz continues to be blocked in this way, oil prices will be uncontrollable, and unexpected moths will appear in the market. Now, if there is a sudden drop in prices, Old Fish thinks it is an opportunity for crisis arbitrage.