Looking at Goldman Sachs Research gives a good timeline for thinking about the Strait of Hormuz * March 4, Hormuz flows would recover in 5 days. * March 9, they pushed that to 10 days * March 11, they extended it again to 21 days of very low flows before a 30-day gradual recovery. Goldman's thinking was similar to mine. On March 4th, I ASSUMED the US Military had an active plan to open the Strait. Between March 4th and March 11th, my thinking (like Goldman's) evolved when we both realized they either had the wrong plan or no plan and are currently struggling to figure out what to do. This is no longer a War with Iran It is now a War to reopen the Strait of Hormuz(Jim Bianco)