Kalshi trader predicts a 31% probability of economic recession in the United States by 2026 According to a report by Golden Finance, on March 12th, Kalshi traders predicted a 31% probability of economic recession in the United States in 2026, with an increase of about 11 percentage points due to fluctuations in oil prices. Goldman Sachs pointed out that the oil price fluctuations caused by the Iran conflict are the primary risk: for every 10% sustained increase in oil prices, it will push up inflation by about 0.2 percentage points and lower GDP growth by 0.1 percentage points. Goldman Sachs predicts: -The average price of Brent crude oil in March and April is about $98 -Overall PCE inflation of 2.9% in December 2026 -GDP growth rate of 2.2% -Peak unemployment rate of 4.6% -The probability of a 12-month recession is 25% Due to sustained high inflation, the Federal Reserve may postpone the interest rate cut to September and December.