[Probability of U.S. Economic Recession Drops to 28%] According to a report by Jinse Finance, citing market sources: Kalshi traders currently believe the probability of a U.S. economic recession in 2026 is 28%, down from the recent high of 34%–36%. Wells Fargo stated that economic expansion will continue, supported by the service sector, demographic structure, and fiscal policy. Only a large-scale, sustained oil shock could potentially trigger a recession.