Our "Conflict Playbook" is progressing: As oil prices hit $90/barrel and gas prices surge over +20%, the market is quickly pricing-in prolonged disruption. This is exactly what happens in Step #6 of our playbook. As we note below, the biggest variable now is the amount of time between Step #6, conflict pricing, and Step #7, conditional de-escalation. At current prices, US CPI Inflation would near ~3.0% per our analysis, an unsustainable backdrop. Our 2-4 week timeline remains in effect.(The Kobeissi Letter)