The US hopes for a diplomatic offramp in Iran are over! Mojtaba Khamenei the son of former Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been elected as the Supreme Leader, taking over from temporary Supreme Leader Arafi. This is bad. Initially considered dead, Mojtaba is a former member of the IRGC and the Basij, with combat experience in the Iran-Iraq war. While he is not as extremist conservative as Arafi, he believes in enforcing the regimes beliefs through an iron fist. Mojtaba was the key figure that leveraged IRGC forces and secret police to crush down 2009 protests against his father’s regime. These crackdowns were ones where reports included protestors beaten to death, dragged through the streets, hung from public cranes, and where rape was used as a weapon of compliance. Majtoba strongly believed in his father’s regional ambitions and believed Iran should leverage the Basij paramilitary group, as well as its proxies in Hezbollah and Yemeni Rebels to expand Iranian influence. He has a deep hatred of America who has been in a long sanctions battle with him. Unlike other potential Supreme Leaders who would be more ideologically driven in a religious sense, and hands off on the secular, Mojtaba is more likely to consolidate power and control the other branches of Iran like his father did, but by pushing them forward instead of reigning them in. He is also more likely to push the message of his father as a martyr and frame this as a religious fight for revenge. The fact the IRGC pushed the clerics in this vote highlights the control they’ve seized in this process, and that they expect Mojtaba Khamenei to uphold his father’s ambition through strength. The US can expect this fight to expand regionally, and be deeply insurgency focused. This is one of the worst possible outcomes.(Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth))