Commerce between China and Iran is declining: China's exports to Iran fell to $6.93 billion in 2025, the lowest in at least 11 years. This is down -63% from the ~$18.65 billion peak in 2017. At the same time, China's imports from Iran are down to $3.04 billion, leaving China's trade surplus at $3.89 billion, the lowest since 2022. Furthermore, despite absorbing ~33% of Iranian trade, Iran represents less than 1% of China's total commerce. Furthermore, Iranian crude makes up ~13% of China's seaborne oil intake, even though China purchases ~90% of total Iranian oil exports. Meanwhile, in 2021, China signed a 25-year, $400 billion strategic cooperation agreement with Iran, but only $2-3 billion has been confirmed since then. China’s economic exposure to Iran is far more limited than it seems.(The Kobeissi Letter)