[The probability of the 'U.S. and Iran ceasefire before March 15' event on Polymarket drops to 25%] According to data from the Polymarket website, the probability of the 'U.S. and Iran ceasefire before March 15' event once rose to 64%, then fell back to 25%, with trading volume exceeding $800,000. Earlier reports stated that Trump mentioned this morning that operations against Iran are expected to last 4 to 5 weeks, but could take longer.