比特币橙子Trader|Mar 02, 2026 12:04
The Cold War era achieved gold, and after the US Iran War, the world may choose Bitcoin!
I just read Arthur Hayes' latest article "iOS Warfare".
He said the past thirty years
Every Middle Eastern war does not just end on the battlefield.
They end up on the central bank's balance sheet,
Ending on the interest rate path,
Ending in the money supply.
Interest rate cuts after the Gulf War.
Rapid easing after 9/11.
During the war on terror, liquidity was rampant.
War is not good for the market.
But war almost always brings cheaper money.
And cheaper money is the real fuel for risky assets.
If Iran is really beaten through, forced to surrender, or even enters a long-term reconstruction cycle,
What the short-term market sees is:
Oil price shock
Risk premium increases
Geopolitical uncertainty
But what really matters are the three things that happen next.
one ️⃣ War leaves behind debts
military expenditure
rebuild
safety commitment
Expanding deficit → Rising debt → Financing dependent on monetary environment
This is not a conspiracy.
It's mathematics.
War will not directly drive up Bitcoin.
But war will make easing more difficult to avoid.
two ️⃣ The financial system is beginning to weaponize
asset freeze
Payment blockade
Politicization of liquidation
More and more countries will realize that:
Wealth does not entirely belong to you,
It falls within the scope allowed by the system.
Neutral assets, from ideas to needs.
three ️⃣ Bitcoin is gaining new roles
The crisis will not weaken the demand for the US dollar,
Stablecoins are becoming an on chain dollar system.
At the same time, BTC possesses three scarcity attributes:
Cannot be frozen
Cannot be reviewed
No additional issuance allowed
During the Cold War era, people needed gold.
In the era of sanctions, people need wealth that cannot be frozen.
The Cold War shaped the safe haven status of gold.
Because the world is torn apart by factional confrontation.
If the world enters the era of long-term confrontation again,
History will not repeat itself,
But it rhymes.
If the US Iran conflict becomes prolonged:
The pressure of monetary easing is increasing
The instrumentalization of financial sanctions is accelerating
The demand for stablecoins continues to expand
Bitcoin neutral stored value attribute enhancement
War will not directly cause Bitcoin to rise.
But war is making Bitcoin necessary.
The Cold War era achieved gold.
In the era of financial weaponization,
Bitcoin may become a new world reserve asset.
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