TraderS | 缺德道人|Mar 01, 2026 06:04
As is well known, the United States has three pillars - the US dollar, the US military, and technology. The successful capture of Maduro last time caused the pie to rebound by nearly 10000 points. It is not surprising that this trend will also follow the changes in the war situation. If Iran does not launch a decent counterattack before the opening of the US stock market tomorrow night, such as sinking US warships, destroying US and Israeli military bases and causing significant casualties, then the US stock market is likely to continue to soar, and the pie will follow suit.
After the death of Khamenei, Iran's top priority is to stabilize the political situation and elect a new leader. As Khamenei had already taken power before his death, frontline commanders could launch strikes without authorization from Tehran. At present, Iran is led by the President, Chief Justice, and a jurist from the Constitutional Supervisory Committee, who have elected a new Supreme Leader.
It is said that the current Iranian president has been marginalized, and hardliners who support revenge against Khamenei have the upper hand. But in reality, I am skeptical about how much damage Iran can inflict. Even if Ayatollah Khamenei is still alive in Iran, how much actual damage can be expected if he is weak enough to take down the Supreme Leader.
For the United States, killing Khamenei is not the end, post-war governance is the key.
1. Iran needs time to elect a new leader and recover for a period of time, with short-term big wins, stock market gains, and gold and silver falling
If the current regime in Iran is overthrown, Iran falls into internal turmoil, oil prices rise, and American oil and gas groups benefit, but Russia can also take the opportunity to restore its power
3. The United States' capture of Maduro has not effectively controlled Venezuela, making it even more difficult for Iran
4. If Trump fell into long-term chaos after the Iraq War, it would be very difficult for Trump to take away Iran's oil revenue, so he had to take away book profits or inventory for the first time, and it would be difficult to prevent the resumption of subsequent operations
In short, continuing to closely monitor the trend of the war situation has a simple logic - if the United States has an advantage, it will rise; if the United States falls, it will fall.
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