US housing supply is moving in the wrong direction: New building permits for new homes declined -3.6% YoY, to 1.42 million in 2025, the lowest since 2019, according to the US Census. From the 2021 peak, permits have declined ~350,000, or -19%. New housing starts fell -0.6% YoY, to 1.36 million, also the lowest since 2019. At the same time, housing completions dropped -7.9% YoY, to 1.5 million. The supply side of the housing market is tightening while demand remains elevated. Housing affordability pressures are set to intensify.(The Kobeissi Letter)