Review the operation and controversy process of "Which robot dancer brands will appear at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala Let's start with the conclusion: all the No's purchased have been reset to zero Before the Spring Festival, the probability of all four robots cooperating with the Spring Festival Gala being Yes exceeded 90%. I carefully examined the rules: the market needs to meet three conditions: debut, ground robots, and dancing. The PM's probability is that the market consensus is too unanimous, and I cannot dance with all four. So based on research, I bet on the following two No's: 1) Galbot: wheeled chassis+industrial positioning, aimed at factories and program types. 2) MagicLab: Headquartered in Wuxi, far from various venues in Beijing, with high transportation costs for large-scale operations After the Spring Festival Gala program list is released, Magic Lab defaults to missing the song. But I bet too much on Noetix, judging based on the type of program (skit) First, three robots performed with this, and Noetix danced in the last few seconds There is no objection to these judgments. After the settlement of several other companies, the market immediately judged, confirming the interpretation that 'dancing is considered Yes'. So Galbot's No: Without feet, industrial positioning, and micro movie programs, it's highly likely that they won't be able to dance. Galbot appeared in the entire micro movie without any dance, praising the progress of the robotics industry this year throughout. No should have risen to 100%, but it only reached 34%. At this point, the PM underground comment section began to argue: -At the beginning of the 'Yes' list, they cursed and said they would accept 400K goods at 90%. -Magic Lab's robot waving its hand is also considered Yes, so Galbot is also considered -The big cart leader has also arrived, and I don't think it should be judged as' No ' The dispute is stuck on two screens: 7:11 GALBOT waved his hand and compared his heart, and the Yes side thought it was dancing At 7:59, GALBOT made a 'collect' gesture, which I think was conducting the band Then this market enters the dispute stage: Yes ->No ->Yes Three lessons and lessons learned: 1. Controversy over Market Titles and Rules -Market Title: Debut. Most people think that as long as they play, it's okay -Rule writing: Appearance, ground robots, dancing. The dispute over Polymarket will be resolved by UMA. UMA has several consistent preferences: 1) If the rules are written vaguely, UMA looks at the first impression that market headlines give to ordinary people 2) Do not interpret in a lawyer's style. The more you pick words and use strict definitions to derive conclusions, the less likely UMA is to buy it. 3) Polymarket's official clarification is the highest authority. 2. Dispute betting After the market enters a dispute, discussions will be held on UMA Discord. There is a key information gap at this stage: The discussion direction of DC ≈ the final judgment direction. When the discussion in DC tends towards Yes, market prices will follow suit and pull back; Tending towards No, the price will fall. There is a time difference in between - DC has reached a consensus, but the price has not fully reflected it yet. But what's a bit foolish is that the few people who thought No didn't see the situation right and even deleted their judgment Afraid of affecting the decision winning rate? 3. Bet on logic and liquidity The logic of this short selling is that the consensus of the Yes side is based on "cooperation=appearance=Yes", but in reality, there are a large number of variables - whether they will dance, how to calculate dance, program type, product positioning - and the market has not priced these variables. The odds for 'No' are good, there are enough variables, it's worth betting on. This judgment itself is correct. The results also confirmed that Galbot's No increased up to 10 times after buying. But it increased tenfold and didn't earn a single point. The order book is too thin to fit out at all. Similar to the market, you can still bet, but there is a prerequisite that must be checked first: whether the depth of the order book is sufficient to support your position exit? Finally, the Spring Festival Gala's roast: after looking at it, I have no impression. Every program gives me the feeling of being rushed and in a hurry. In such an urgent environment, Magic lab actually dances and dresses.