In a bear market, when all on-chain composite signals are at zero, any price increase during this period is viewed as a rebound, not a reversal. Only when signals overlap or appear successively can it potentially indicate a trending market. Although BTC has not yet fallen below <10y_RP ($65,000) — the psychological threshold and lifeline of the market — there’s still hope for a shallow bear path. (Bear Market Recovery Composite On-Chain Signals) However, as LTH-RPRL and LTH-SOPR both dip “underwater,” investors’ price sensitivity continues to rise. All of this only indicates that the uncertainty ahead is also increasing (see the quoted text below). As for rebound expectations, I personally think it should reach above $75,000. If not this time, then next time. Why? I’ll explain in detail in my next post. Since there’s still a possibility of a deep bear market, the question arises: “Can we short at the high point of a rebound?” No! I won’t. I have a sense of reverence for BTC. I may be bearish, but I won’t short it. Unless you have extreme confidence in your trading skills and sufficient cash flow to allow for mistakes. In contrast, I’d rather choose to go long on a trend (spot or low-leverage mid-to-long-term positions) at some point in the future. At that time, time will certainly not be on the side of the bears, and even if there’s a short-term loss, it’ll be easier to mentally prepare for it. ---------------------------------- BTC bear market recovery signals include: key pricing models (both technical and on-chain models), network utilization (increased on-chain activity, heightened network congestion), market profitability (exhaustion of selling momentum, profit-taking absorbed by the market), and supply distribution trends (more tokens being held for profit), among other comprehensive considerations. Related tweet link mentioned in the text: Winter is coming, are you ready? — The psychological threshold and lifeline at $65,000 https://(x.com)/Murphychen888/status/2021428471864660286