Phyrex|Feb 12, 2026 19:56
It's been difficult to do homework every day recently, and the sharp decline in the market today seems to suggest that Friday's CPI data will be very poor, exceeding previous values and expectations. Even JPMorgan Chase has made a prediction that the monthly inflation rate will increase by 0.4%. In the favorable economic situation of non farm data, inflation should be the data that everyone is most concerned about, and a 0.4% increase in monthly rate is likely to lead to a rise in broad CPI. Therefore, today's decline may be a safe haven behavior for investors.
This means that if the CPI data for next Friday is really poor, the decline may continue, and after Friday is China's Spring Festival (stock markets in China, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, and Hong Kong will all be closed), which is also a three-day short holiday in the United States, the market liquidity will definitely be very low. If there is a moth at this time, we really need to shout for help.
However, I believe that short-term data is not enough to determine the next monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Trump does not need another Powell. The Wash selected for such a long time will surprise us or frighten Trump. It will not be known until June. Before that, life may be very difficult. Yes, there is also a tariff of Trump.
Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, the turnover rate continues to increase and investor sentiment continues to be tested. However, based on the BTC data transferred to the exchange, there are not many new sell offs, but the stock on the exchange is increasing, indicating that purchasing power is decreasing. From sentiment to funding, everything is in a mess, and there are really signs of entering a bear market.
However, URPD data shows that the chip structure is still quite healthy. Early investors and high loss investors have not changed much, and the emotions of most investors are still relatively stable. However, due to the shortage of purchasing power and the gap in liquidity, even a small amount of selling market cannot be sustained.
Let's take a look at Friday's CPI.
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