*Walter Bloomberg|Feb 12, 2026 17:42
CPI REPORT COULD JOLT STOCKS, JPMORGAN WARNS
U.S. stocks could swing sharply after Friday’s CPI report, according to JPMorgan’s trading desk. Economists expect core inflation to rise about 0.3% in January (2.5% year over year), while JPMorgan forecasts a hotter 0.39% monthly gain.
The bank sees a 42.5% chance of a 0.35%–0.4% reading, which could lift the S&P 500 by 0.25%–0.75%. But a print above 0.45%—a 5% probability—could trigger a 1.25%–2.5% drop.
JPMorgan says a hawkish surprise is more likely than a soft one, though it expects limited market reaction to a stagflation-style reading.(*Walter Bloomberg)
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