When the 'artifact' begins to fade: the rainbow chart is slowly losing its effectiveness round by round Looking at the red box area on the right side of this picture, the once revered Bitcoin rainbow chart has completely deviated from the predicted trajectory of the model in terms of price. The root cause of the failure? Two words: fitting These types of indicators are essentially post fitting of historical data: Fit a rainbow band that looks very scientific using price trends from 2010 to 2020 After each round of bull and bear, the parameters need to be readjusted to 'continue to be effective' Just like the popular S2F model back then, the deviation has now exceeded 80% The market structure has changed ETF approval, institutional entry, and decrease in volatility Using the slope from ten years ago to fit the current market is like carving a boat and seeking a sword. Why do I only look at chip indicators? As someone who made a bargain in 2022 and successfully escaped to the top with 113K this year, I now only believe in one logic: Lines can be redrawn, but chips won't lie. Relative unrealized losses: reflecting real panic selling UTXO distribution: displays the true cost structure of funds • Distance from ATH drawdown: historical iron rule (-75% to -85% bottoming out) These data track the behavior of real gold and silver, not the fantasies of mathematical models. A sentence for friends who are still superstitious about rainbow charts: Mathematical models may fail, but human nature remains unchanged forever. The true bottom is not told by a certain color area, but when a large number of loss making chips are sold off in panic and even you dare not buy them yourself. My 2026 35K-50K bottom fishing plan is not based on rainbow, but on the dual verification of chip cost structure and historical drawdown patterns. Tools may become outdated, and the ability to understand the underlying logic of the market may not be sufficient. BTC Rainbow Chart Chain Analysis Chip Distribution Technical Indicator Failure Professional Trader