The short US bond trade is very crowded: Short interest in the popular Treasury bond-tracking ETF, TLT, is up to a record 150.5 million shares. This is 10 TIMES above levels seen in March 2023, which stood at ~15 million shares. Short interest has TRIPLED since 2024 despite the TLT price remaining flat over this period. Long-term Treasuries have been in a bear market for nearly 6 years now. Since April 2020, TLT has declined -40%, with the biggest drawdown reaching -47% in October 2023. Long-term bonds are more hated than ever.(The Kobeissi Letter)