Is there still a chance for counterfeiting? Let's take a look at two pieces of data 1. The position of counterfeit stocks is still at a low level The capital contribution has not entered the counterfeit market At the same time, Starting from January 1st, the trading volume showed an increasing trend This strange phenomenon indicates that at least one of the buyers or sellers in every transaction is closing an old position rather than opening a new one. At the same time, the overall price of counterfeit products remains very low/fluctuating at a low level There may be three possible scenarios 1. Frequent hand changes A person holding an old contract transferred their position to a newly entered trader. Long position turnover: Old long positions are sold and closed, while new long positions are taken over and opened. Short position turnover: Old short positions are bought and closed, while new short positions are sold and opened. Connotation: The internal forces of the market are "handing over the baton", although trading is booming, there is no new capital inflow. This usually occurs during the intermediate stage of the trend or the period of consolidation and oscillation. 2. Closing trend at the end of the trend (reversal warning) If this divergence occurs after significant price fluctuations, it is usually a signal that the trend is about to decline. Bottom line of decline: Price drops, trading volume increases significantly, but holdings decrease. The decline is driven by long liquidation (passive selling to close positions). When the bull market is completely liquidated, prices often experience a rebound/reversal In summary, the current market lacks new capital entering transactions and has insufficient liquidity Any rebound is not sustainable and is more likely to be a pulsating rebound formed by short positions being forced to close due to pressure on funding rates. If a reversal is to be confirmed, the position must start to increase, the trading volume must increase, and the price must fluctuate or break through the range. At present, we still need to wait for the signal to appear Position, trading volume, counterfeit