In depth analysis of the differences between the 25 tragedy and the 312, 519, 1011, LUNA/FTX thunderstorms Is this just a bull market clearing leverage, or is it the beginning of an endless bear market? Damn it! After experiencing consecutive setbacks last week, we finally rebounded this weekend. Although this rebound is not unique to the cryptocurrency market, the US stock market and gold also experienced a major rebound on Friday But at least everyone can finally catch their breath, and the panic of the cryptocurrency market going straight to zero and declaring failure has noticeably weakened. Take advantage of this window and speak clearly at once. We refer to the continuous decline from January 29 to June 26, 2026 as the 25 tragedy. Similarly, 312 should be viewed as a "range" from March 7th, 2020 to March 15th, 2019, 1011, LUNA/FTX, rather than a scary candlestick. 1、 First of all, let's conclude that the 25 tragedy is more like 312 than 519, and certainly not LUNA/FTX. This is the foundation of the entire article. If you insist on categorizing these tragedies, it would be like this: 312: Global liquidity crisis, all assets searching for cash together 519/1011: The cryptocurrency circle bursts its own leverage and clears the waterfall LUNA/FTX: Credit or mechanism death, direct elimination 25 Tragedy: Cross market Risk Reduction+Wall Street Deleveraging, Currency Market Accidentally Hurted The "taste" of 25 is very unusual in the cryptocurrency industry. 2、 Why isn't the 25th tragedy like 519/1011? Because the starting point of this decline is not in the cryptocurrency market. The common feature of 519 and 1011 is simple: the leverage density is extremely high, and with just one trigger, the exchange clearing mechanism will collapse the market on its own. And since January 29th, several signals have appeared simultaneously in the 25 tragedy: US stock risk assets weaken first Technology and software stocks experience increased volatility BTC's correlation with the Nasdaq and growth stocks has reached an unusually high level ETF trading volume surged, but there was no panic redemption corresponding to the scale This is not individual investors cutting meat. This is a multi asset portfolio forced to reduce risk. 3、 Why is the 25 tragedy more like 312? Because there is only one core: correlation suddenly approaches 1 at extreme moments. At 312, it was the pandemic that triggered global panic, and stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies were all smashed together, with no one qualified to have an independent market. The structure of the 25 tragedies is almost identical: Risk control model triggered simultaneously Deleveraging is not a judgment, it's an instruction Selling behavior is indiscriminate The difference is that Bitcoin in 2026 has already been completely stuffed into the Wall Street system. 4、 The biggest difference between this time and 312 is that IBIT has become a "liquidity valve" This is the most crucial point of the 25 tragedy. At the time of 312: There are no spot ETFs available There is no institutional pipeline of the depth we have today More importantly, there is a rupture in the structure and liquidity of the exchange And in the 25 tragedies: IBIT's daily trading volume surged to the level of billions of dollars Options, basis, and market maker hedging operate simultaneously Bitcoin is treated uniformly as a standardized risk asset for the first time When Wall Street deleveraged, BTC was no longer an "exception" but a "item on the list". 5、 Conspiracy Theory Time: Is this wave really a 'natural decline'? If you only read the news in the cryptocurrency industry, of course you won't be able to tell. But when piecing together a few fragments, it's hard not to think too much: Arthur Hayes explicitly stated that this sharp decline is likely due to a trader's hedging operations on IBIT structured products At the same time, the market reported that a Hong Kong institution had liquidated its position in a multi asset structure and was forced to liquidate related exposures IBIT trading volume hits record, but ETFs have not experienced corresponding levels of capital flight During the decline, the implied volatility structure of options is abnormal, resembling a 'passive hedge stampede' What is this more like? It's more like: some high leverage, cross market structures go wrong first, risk control systems close early, and prices are just the result. Is there a black swan that hasn't been exposed yet? No one knows. But the market is clearly using prices to digest risks in advance. 6、 Why did it rebound? And the US stock market and gold also rebounded together? Because the most fragile batch of leverage is no longer available. Before this rebound, the market had already shown several very typical "stage bottoming out signals": Large scale liquidation Old boss surrenders Sharp drop in leverage density Even old bulls like Huazi, with hundreds of thousands of ETH, choose to clear their positions and leave. This surrender, placed in the cycle, is never a bad signal. And it's not just the cryptocurrency industry that sees it this way. 7、 Recently, several key voices are moving in the same direction Jiaxin Wealth Management's live broadcast clearly stated that the market has completed a round of deleveraging, and they have liquidated a large number of put options for clients and started rebuilding positions Wintermute strategist believes that this so-called 'crypto winter' will thaw much faster than in history Tom Lee gave a very hard data: Ethereum has experienced 7 retracements of over 60% in the past 8 years, almost all of which were V-shaped rebounds Cathie Wood emphasized the extremely low correlation between Bitcoin and gold while starting to buy cryptocurrency concept stocks in batches Of course, there are also opponents. Besson bluntly stated that the US government has no right to "rescue" Bitcoin, and taxpayers' money will not be invested in cryptocurrency Financial Times directly criticized: Bitcoin is still severely overvalued, collapse is imminent The simultaneous appearance of long and short sounds is a typical stage switching signal in itself. 8、 That's the question: is this a bull market deleveraging or the beginning of an endless bear market? I give a biased but not blind judgment: The 25 tragedy is more like a violent reshuffle triggered by Wall Street deleveraging in the middle of a bull market. The reason is simple: No credit bankruptcy No agreement on death No exchange has gone bankrupt Just risk being repriced If this is the beginning of a bear market, you should have already seen the 'corpse'. But this time, what you see is that the position has been cleared and the structure has become lighter. 9、 Is there still a super cycle in 2026? What can continue to ignite? If there is still a market trend in 2026, the driving force will no longer be emotions, but a few very specific things: The Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act is truly implemented Bitcoin strategic reserve moves from slogan to execution Substantial easing of monetary policy The usage scale of stablecoins in the real economy continues to expand After 312, it was not emotions that truly ignited the bull market, but the continuous issuance of USDT and the return of liquidity. This time, the form may be different, but the logic will not change. 10、 Summary: Has the 25 tragedy already ended? No one can guarantee it. But one thing is already clear: this is not LUNA, nor FTX. More like 312. And what happened after 312, everyone remembers.