Murphy|Feb 08, 2026 05:25
Yili Hua cleared its position, as one of the largest Ethereum bulls in this cycle, and ultimately exited with a loss of about -734 million US dollars, which is deeply regrettable I originally thought that I would only unload leverage to reduce liquidation risk, but I didn't expect to clear my spot positions as well.
I remember on December 30, 2025, at the request of my friends, I systematically analyzed and elaborated on "when do I think ETH is worth buying at the bottom" from four dimensions: "emotion, structure, cost, and synthesis".
Simply put, when LTH-NUPL<0, PSIP<50%, price is lower than whale cost, and market comprehensive score is less than 1-4, at least 2 of these conditions must be met to attempt to build a warehouse; Only when three or more positions are met can a moderate increase in position be considered.
At that time, all four conditions were not met, so in my opinion, ETH of $2950 was not worth buying; But Mr. Yi's fund Trend Research is building a large number of positions, and its trading strategy is completely opposite to my views. It's hard to imagine that institutions would also have such a high risk appetite.
Returning to the current state, we can see from the following four images:
(Figure 1)
1 LTH-NUPL =0.1; Not met, but only one step away from the zero axis;
(Figure 2)
2 PSIP=39.9%; Satisfied, the current profit supply percentage is even lower than the lowest point of the previous bear market in April 25 and June 22.
(Figure 3)
3. The price has fallen below the average cost of the three major whale populations ($2051, $2198, $2392 respectively), and has been met.
(Figure 4)
4. Market comprehensive rating index=1; Not meeting the requirement of less than 1, but it is still considered to have entered the bottom range.
Therefore, if I were to rate the current ETH, I believe it should be 'buy in batches (spot)' rather than 'clear all positions' - my viewpoint is once again completely opposite to Mr. Yi's trading strategy - as for whether it is correct or not, it can only be left to time to verify.
Mr. Yi successfully bought ETH at the bottom in April of the 25th year and ultimately achieved a big result. From the data, the timing he chose at that time fully met the judgment criteria of the above four dimensions.
However, this time, with almost the same overall rating, he chose to clear the warehouse. Perhaps it was the huge losses that left him in a state of confusion, or perhaps it was a helpless act under financial pressure.
Anyway, I feel extremely regretful about such a result .....
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The above is only for learning exchange and not for investment advice!
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