In 2022, I saw bottom predictoooors say that Bitcoin couldn't fall below $20k (after they also called bottoms at $30k, $40k, etc.) because "Bitcoin has never fallen below the prior cycle highs." Then Bitcoin fell from $20k to $15k. Investors who speculated on that view got wrecked in the short-term and capitulated in November 2022, and were so busy licking their wounds that they didn't come back into the market too late into the new bull. The lessons: • Speculating on bottoms too early is too much of a risk and could lead to psychological turmoil and/or the inability to DCA at the proper times. • Just because something has happened in the past, doesn't mean it can't happen in the future. • Just because something hasn't happened in the past, doesn't mean that it can't happen in the future. • If you have steady income and a bulletproof long-term thesis on Bitcoin, then I think it's better to have a consistent and lengthy DCA schedule so that you're a buyer, regardless of how long the bear market lasts. • If you don't have steady income and only have a limited amount of capital to DCA, your ability to survive the bear market will depend entirely on avoiding capitulation, which means you need to avoid speculating on bottoms. I already saw a lot of people get wrecked by the price action over the past week, which is proven by the record amount of liquidations that occurred, based on the speculation that Bitcoin had bottomed. Investors fell for the hopium disseminated on this platform by accounts with big followings and big engagement. And now they're forced to lick their wounds, with less capital than they had before, which therefore hurts their ability to survive the bear and enjoy the next bull. Thankfully, I'm not one of those investors. Thankfully, Cubic Analytics members aren't either. We're going to navigate this market with prudence, rather than hope, based on data, objectivity, and the willingness to adapt when the data & market structure changes.(Caleb Franzen)