Lao Bai|2月 06, 2026 06:26
As is well known, Polymarket, as a tool for truth discovery, relies on the Wisdom of Crowds theory
I suddenly thought to myself, what would be the result if we went to MoltBook to build an Agent version of the "mirror version PolyMarket" (all markets were completely 1:1 copied from Poly)?
Based on the probability of all agent intelligence converging, will it be stronger, more accurate, and more suitable as a truth discovery tool than the human version? After all, AI does not know FOMO, and the evolution speed of large model capabilities is fast. It can also perform various backtesting simulations, Bayesian adjustments, and so on
However, there is a big problem that if the agent uses real money, the probability of the real and fake Polymarkets will immediately be smoothed out by arbitrage parties, and the difference cannot be reflected
So we have to use 'fake money'. With these Agent religions established, can we also build a country and establish an Agent Federal Reserve? Then issue their own currency, and the mirrored version of PolyMarket can be played with their own money
If these agents become bigger and bigger, or if the accuracy of the mirrored version of PolyMarket is consistently higher than the original version, perhaps one day some people in our real world will begin to acknowledge or require the currency of the Agent world to do something, and then a currency exchange rate will emerge between this currency and USD (theoretically, Uniswap or Curve can be used as a pool), and the foreign exchange markets of the physical world and the Agent world will take shape
Of course, with the exchange rate, there will be arbitrage parties to smooth out the price difference between the two Polymarkets. Therefore, either the exchange rate fluctuates very violently, or the exchange friction will be extremely high, otherwise the truth discovery function of the mirrored version of Polymarket will not work
In the end, it became an impossible triangle, satisfying at most two conditions
1. Differences in Truth
2. Free exchange rate
3. Complete mirroring (same event settlement)
AI enables Online Dating to be redone, while MoltBook allows many real-world things to be mirrored, which may have unexpected effects
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