CM|2月 03, 2026 09:07
A lot of people are talking about River, saying things like, 'Why didn’t you short it at $80?' But in reality, people were already thinking about shorting it when it was at $40. Without exception, they all got liquidated, and the funding rate was 2% per hour—nobody could hold on.
If we really calculate based on the peak of $100, the unlock in March could be around $80 million. This market definitely can’t absorb that. But even knowing this outcome, shorting still isn’t a good choice.
At the current price, the unlock pressure might be around $15 million. This estimate is probably just for the points redemption portion. It’s unclear how the shares from Hei Ge and Sun Ge will be unlocked—you can monitor it on Dune.
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