Current phase: End of the bull market, start of the bear market In the chart: - Gray line: BTC price - Yellow line: Average cost basis of short-term BTC holders - Magenta line: Average cost basis of long-term BTC holders (excluding coins held for >10 years) Indicator breakdown: - **Average cost basis of short-term BTC holders**: Represents the average entry cost of short-term holders (holding <155 days, based on the price at the last transfer). Insights: Reflects the profit/loss status of short-term groups. When the price is above the average, they are in profit, which often leads to upward momentum. When below, they are in loss, which can lead to selling pressure, forming downward pressure or support levels, and helps identify short- to mid-term market bottoms. - **Average cost basis of long-term BTC holders (excluding coins held for >10 years)**: Represents the average entry cost of long-term holders (holding >155 days, excluding coins held for >10 years). This focuses on active long-term groups and avoids distortion from dormant coins. Insights: Reflects the profit/loss status of long-term groups. When the price is above the average, they are in profit, which can lead to profit-taking and upward resistance. When below, they are in loss, but this provides downward support, helping to identify bear market bottoms or cycle turning points.