看不懂的SOL|Feb 01, 2026 14:59
The fate of the world's largest Bitcoin whale (micro strategy) has arrived.
1. Micro Strategy, which holds 712600 BTC with an average cost of $76037, accounting for 3.39% of the total BTC.
2. What company is Micro Strategy? Originally a publicly traded technology company, it later said in 2020 that it spent $250 million to purchase Bitcoin as a hedge against the depreciation of the US dollar.
Then it became uncontrollable, and having cash to buy wasn't enough. We also issued bonds, raised money, and continued to buy Bitcoin with borrowed money.
3. The core logic of this company is not complicated: as long as the market is willing to give MSTR stocks a higher valuation than the bitcoins they hold, the company can buy more bitcoins by issuing new shares, allowing each existing shareholder's corresponding amount of bitcoins to increase instead of decrease.
Once this "flywheel effect" is activated, it will form a positive feedback: stock price increases → issuing stocks to buy coins → BTC holdings increase → stock price continues to rise.
5, but this flywheel also has a fatal prerequisite: the stock price must continue to be higher than the net value of Bitcoin. Once this premium disappears, the entire model will abruptly come to an end.
6. Currently, the BTC price is about to break through the cost price of 76k. Micro strategies need to buy to boost market confidence and find ways to maintain the stock price.
7. Micro strategy is currently not too passive as it is in the execution stage of its ambitious "42/42 Plan".
The plan aims to raise $42 billion through equity issuances and $42 billion through fixed income securities over a three-year period from 2025 to 2027, totaling $84 billion, all of which will be used to purchase Bitcoin.
In addition, at the end of the year, Micro Strategy established a USD Reserve of 1.44 billion, further proving that it does not need to monetize Bitcoin to pay dividends or debt interest, and this reserve can cover at least 21 months of financial expenses.
However, as long as the micro strategy starts selling BTC to repay debts, even if it's just a little bit, it will enter a death spiral. Because the market will panic greatly about the consequences of its huge holdings falling, retail investors will sell early, stomp on each other, kill themselves, and also blow up all the money borrowed by this company, clearing this company that may be defined as "great" in the future.
10. So, if we break through the cost price of 76k, there's no need to worry too much. They also have many ways to conduct maintenance as mentioned earlier. Previously, micro strategies did not fall into this wave, so you can definitely invest in their stock MSTR during these months of low tide, which may bring you impressive returns. Even more optimistic than BTC returns, so I have sensed an opportunity.
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