DC大于C|2月 01, 2026 13:51
Luckily, it’s been holding steady around 786 since daytime. On Friday, I already mentioned under Ni Da’s post to be cautious, and here we are. Now the 80-82 support level has been broken. I previously mentioned that the increased panic sentiment has two aspects. #Bitcoin
One is the price, which might be due to low liquidity. In other words, the order book depth isn’t great, so when buy orders get dumped all at once, the price crashes below the 8-level. This isn’t actually that scary because human emotions are flexible. Data is static. Volatility is normal.
The other is the panic reflected in on-chain data, and this kind of panic is the scariest. Right now, we’re in the 74-79 range. If on-chain panic intensifies, it will increase the turnover rate, causing chips above the 8-level and 9-level to exchange hands in the 74-79 range. If this kind of downward fluctuation lasts for more than a week, recovery won’t be so quick.
Unless we see something like March-April 2025, where positive news comes quickly to contain and reverse the panic sentiment, pushing the price back up. That would be ideal.
For now, on Friday and Saturday, we’ve already seen an increase in BTC on-chain turnover, but it’s not too extreme. After last night’s drop, the sentiment in Asia during the day today is still okay, and the market hasn’t been further dumped. The key will be tonight and tomorrow before the U.S. stock market opens, especially when U.S. stock index futures open tomorrow. We’ll need to watch the market sentiment.
So, these are the two scenarios. Next week’s main events are whether the U.S. government can reopen and avoid a shutdown, and whether the market can accept the nomination of Waller.
As for me, I haven’t made any moves yet. It’s hard to say what will happen. I’ll just have to wait and see how the market sentiment develops during the workweek.
If the market really continues to drop tomorrow, causing turnover rates to expand, then we’ll just have to endure it for the rebound trend we’re hoping for. It might take about a month to digest.
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