Phyrex|Jan 30, 2026 23:54
The three bearish events this week have already played out one by one, and now all that's left is the shutdown. Based on the current information, a U.S. government shutdown next Monday is highly likely. However, this shutdown is expected to be short-lived because the Senate is pushing forward an agreement that includes a short-term continuing resolution and several full-year funding bills. Meanwhile, the House of Representatives is currently in recess and won't return to vote until Monday afternoon (Monday evening Beijing time).
So, it's very likely that the shutdown will still be ongoing on Monday morning, but it could end in the afternoon or later that day, depending on the progress of the House vote. On Kalshi, the general consensus is that the shutdown might last only 1-2 days. Therefore, this shutdown is unlikely to have a significant impact on the market, and even during the shutdown, not all departments will be affected.
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