Two major events in the market this week: 1. Fed interest rate decision 2. Potential U.S. government shutdown In October 2025, the shutdown lasted 43 days, and BTC price dropped from around $120K to $80K. As of now, the probability of a shutdown before January 31 has surged to 79%-80%. The bull market will only come after a financial crisis breaks out, so any current rise is just a rebound, not a reversal.