On Tuesday, the market remained relatively stable, with the US stock market and cryptocurrency maintaining a slightly volatile trend. Among the three negative factors mentioned last weekend, Canada's tariffs should have passed, and the interference of the Japanese yen exchange rate is not significant. The probability of a shutdown remains at around 77%. Although it has not yet affected, if it really enters a shutdown next week, it will depend on whether it is a complete shutdown or a partial shutdown. Based on the current budget, the probability of a partial shutdown is relatively high, and the impact is limited. Thursday morning is the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, and personally, I don't think the significance of the meeting until June is significant. Even if Powell remains on the board, he will inevitably withdraw from his position as chairman, which means that the next three interest rate meetings will be Powell's last presidential moments. Therefore, in reality, Powell's attitude is quite ineffective, and even the March dot plot doesn't seem very meaningful to me. Of course, Powell is most likely still in the three piece set, maintaining a steady 2%. Looking at the data, it's not expected. And in January, it was almost certain that he would not change the interest rate. Even if Powell showed hawkish, Trump might directly announce the candidate for the chairman of the Federal Reserve to ease the anxiety of the market. Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, the turnover rate is not very high, probably because investors are still waiting for the results of the interest rate meeting and next week's shutdown. However, from the perspective of the US trend, today's S&P 500 hit a new historical high, which has been analyzed many times recently. A large amount of funds are entering the US stock market, so the trend of the US stock market is relatively stable. Therefore, BTC, which has a certain correlation with the US stock market, will not be too bad at least. From the perspective of chip structure, it is still very stable, and the turnover rate has not been high recently. Moreover, early investors have not experienced any abnormal movements for a long time. Not to mention whether they have entered a bull market or not, at least there is currently no sign of a bear market, and investors' emotions have not shown panic. Even loss making investors are very healthy. @bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits