Why do I think there is almost no possibility of reversal? On chain behavior provides a particularly effective perspective for observation. From the supply side perspective, when the BTC price rebounds near the short-term chip average cost line (STH-RP), the realized losses are mainly caused by investors holding for 3-6 months (Figure 1). 3-6 month investors are precisely the short-term holders closest to long-term holders. This means that when they are about to achieve breakeven, their first consideration is to break even rather than continuing to take risks, and they are unwilling to transition from STH to LTH. In terms of realized profits, traders with profit margins between 0% and 20% at the time of sale have significantly increased their share of profits (Figure 2). This means that sellers and short-term traders who break even choose to close positions with relatively small profits, rather than continuing to hold and wait for the trend to continue. This type of behavior exacerbates the selling pressure of BTC near the critical resistance threshold, reflecting the fragility of market confidence. If the next rebound to STH-RP continues to show such cautious and negative behavior, the confidence of bulls will suffer repeated blows. Of course, there is always a game in the market, and it is not easy for multiple parties to surrender. At every critical point of weak equilibrium, the collision of forces between the two sides leads to a decisive outcome. If it doesn't work once, then try again until one side defeats the other, and that's how the top and bottom are formed. Behind the on chain behavior is the genuine emotional feedback of all market participants. Obviously, there is currently no confidence or emotional foundation to reverse the trend, and this does not change according to our personal wishes. But the stubbornness and layers of resistance of bulls will lead to a rebound after every short-term oversold. The above is only for learning exchange and not for investment advice! --------------------------------------------- This article is sponsored by @ bitget | Bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits