New BI Report: The Jobless Boom is published. A summary of the status of the US economy, labor market and inflation trends. The US labor market is sick, hiring is frozen, manufacturing is already in recession, and inflation is stuck at the high 2s. In this report, we start with inflation and why the right word for it is “tame”: PCE has been stable since early 2024, Truflation is pointing toward much lower CPI ahead, housing is showing classic deflationary freeze dynamics (transactions seize up before prices fall), and energy prices remain a disinflation tailwind. Then we turn to jobs, where the story is quietly deteriorating: the economy is in a “hiring recession,” job growth outside healthcare and hospitality is weak, unemployment is drifting higher, and employment growth has slowed to levels that have historically preceded recession. We end by tying it together: recession risk hinges on when labor weakness finally hits household budgets and spending, and why the AI capex boom that supported growth may be losing steam. link in the first comment below.(Sina 🗝️⚡ BI Report)