陈剑Jason|1月 21, 2026 05:16
At yesterday's earnings conference of Interactive Brokers, there was a very interesting and noteworthy topic about predicting the market, which may reshape the entire industry Firstly, Interactive Brokers is not a flashy player. It has personally launched its own compliance prediction market platform and deeply integrated it into the system in 24 years. The company's senior management attaches great importance to it as a future growth business. Goldman Sachs then asked the CEO at a meeting about the current acceptance of institutions in the prediction market?
Interestingly, the CEO replied that in their predicted market, the most traded item is the temperature of the weather! And this is not pure gambling, it has real socio-economic value because changes in weather directly affect electricity consumption. Therefore, energy industries such as electricity and natural gas, as well as public facilities such as buses and subways, agriculture, tourism, and so on, all have very important impacts. For example, yesterday it snowed directly in Shanghai, and every household had to turn on heating. Buses and flights may be delayed, so a large number of companies in related industries will indirectly insure themselves to hedge risks by betting on temperature.
So the change in temperature as a number can have a ripple effect, and the trading partners behind it can come from numerous industrial chains, which can bring strong financial richness.
And for the platform, unlike those occasional events, weather is something that can be bet endlessly day after day, and with extremely high frequency, new deals can be opened every day, making it a truly "sustainable" contract.
Furthermore, returning to Opinion, it is currently predicted that the top three in the market have already taken a cliff like lead over their competitors. @ opionlabsxyz has surpassed Polymarket in trading volume and ranks second. However, Opinion is the only one among these three that has not opened a separate weather section. Therefore, if Opinion expands its weather section in the future, such as directly integrating with a weather forecast app, its growth potential will be even greater.
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