[The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates unchanged in January is 95%] According to CME 'FedWatch': The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January is 5%, while the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 95%. By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 20.6%, the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 78.5%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0.9%.