According to Wu, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published an article titled 'Frowny Cloud,' stating that BTC's poor performance in 2025 will mainly be due to a contraction in USD liquidity. Hayes predicts that USD credit will expand again in 2026 (including a rebound in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, an increase in commercial bank loans, and a decline in mortgage rates), which will benefit BTC and other risk assets.