I talked to @ YettaSing for a while today, mainly focusing on the topics of RWA and predictive markets I think there is another often overlooked aspect of 'Crypto clearly wins, but makes everyone feel like they are losing', besides stablecoins, payments, IPOs, which have little to do with retail investors, no knockoff season, and declining coin price performance That is to say, even though the two most prominent markets in this round, Perp and the prediction market, seem lively with explosive wealth effects, impressive data, and sky high valuations, their relationship with retail investors is still not very significant If you don't believe me, ask yourself and your friends around you how much capital you have invested in trading on the Hyperliquid and Polymarket markets every day (non volume boosting airdrop transactions) A while ago, I saw a researcher post some data on Hyperliquid, but I couldn't find the original post. So, I asked Surf to crawl a lot of data for me and did Deep Research. The results were very similar to what the researcher in my impression posted. The original post didn't have a win rate, only transaction volume, so I couldn't cross verify Surf's win rate What left a deep impression on me was that the original post mentioned that only 0.3% of the real big players/institutions actually contribute, but around 70% of the trading volume is contributed by them. That is to say, the core users of Hyperliquid are actually only three to four thousand people What's even more heart wrenching is the win rate. If Surf didn't have illusions or lie, then this data would be too heart wrenching... Then Yetta and I both felt that although Polymarket is also dominated by large investors and institutions, its concentration should not be as exaggerated as Perp's. It would be a market with better participation from individual investors and a larger proportion of transactions So after chatting, I asked Surf to crawl data on Dune for research, and the result was shocking 0.009% of super large investors control 53% of trading volume, while 70% of retail users only generate 0.4% of trading volume This can still be cross validated with some posts from foreign institutions, such as this one, even though it was posted last year I remember looking at the CMB Golden Sunflower data two years ago - "CMB Golden Sunflower 2%" usually refers to CMB Golden Sunflower customers (with monthly average assets of over 500000) accounting for about 2% of its total customer base. This group of high net worth customers contributes the vast majority of the bank's total assets (about 80%), which was quite frightening. I didn't expect that the two hottest tracks in our circle have a higher concentration of wealth So the two tracks may seem lively, but in fact, compared to the previous Defi+NFT round, the participation of individual investors is still one level behind. Of course, after waiting for two or three years, finally waiting for one or two new big narratives, I am already very satisfied and gratified. I cannot ask for more. The Perp track is relatively mature, but the prediction market has just begun. The next wave of prediction market that will emerge is definitely not a "bigger and more comprehensive Polymarket", but a new generation of forms targeting retail investors, long tail events, social attributes, etc. I believe we will see many in the coming months, and we are still looking forward to it Finally, returning to the topic I discussed with @ 0xTodd before about whether AI would narrow or widen the gap between the bottom and top layers, I separately discussed the Gini coefficient with GPT and included blockchain technology. Its ideas and thoughts are similar to mine, so I won't go into the specific details. Let's talk about the core conclusion of GPT “ Under the default evolutionary path, AI+blockchain is more likely to significantly increase the Gini coefficient first; Only when deliberately designed and strongly intervened can it be suppressed for a long time. ” I'm thinking that in 20 years, will the proportion of Golden Sunflower 2 accounting for 80% become 0.2 accounting for 80%