Wintermute: Whether the market can recover in 2022 depends on three major factors, and the market urgently needs to inject fanatical momentum BlockBeats News: On January 14th, cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute analyzed in its review of the digital asset over-the-counter market that the traditional four-year cycle of Bitcoin in 2025 is weak, and the altcoin cycle has almost disappeared. This is not a short-term adjustment, but a structural change. Therefore, in order for the cryptocurrency market to truly rebound strongly in 2026, it highly relies on at least one of the following three key outcomes: ETF and crypto treasury (DAT) companies will expand their investment scope beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. At present, the US spot BTC/ETH ETF highly concentrates liquidity on a few large cap tokens, resulting in a narrow market width and severe performance differentiation. Only when more currencies are included by institutions through ETFs or corporate treasuries can broader market participation and liquidity be restored. BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL and other major assets have once again shown strong performance and generated widespread wealth effects. The traditional cycle of "BTC rising followed by capital flowing to knockoffs" in 2025 has basically broken, and the average rise period of knockoffs is only about 20 days (about 60 days the previous year), with most tokens continuing to decline due to unlocking selling pressure. Only when the top assets rise again can funds overflow downwards and activate the knockoff market. Retail investors' attention returns to the cryptocurrency market. At present, retail investors are still actively participating in the market, but their funds are mainly invested in the S&P 500 AI、 High growth themes such as robotics and quantum computing. The painful memories of 2022-2023 (plummeting, bankruptcy, strong consolidation) combined with the lagging performance of cryptocurrency compared to traditional stock markets in 2025 have significantly reduced the appeal of cryptocurrency's "sudden wealth" to many people. Only when retail investors return on a large scale, will the market regain its frenzied momentum.