In a tweet on December 10, 25, we calculated that if we wanted PSIP to be below 50% at that time, the price of BTC would have to drop to $62000 (see citation). The previous calculation on November 20th was that the PSIP would only fall below 50% when the price dropped to $59000. And yesterday, I recalculated and the result is still $62000. (Figure 1) The implicit message is that from November 20th to December 10th, a large number of low-level chips were exchanged for high-level ones (profit taking), resulting in an overall increase in chip costs. During the period from December 10th to January 12th, the number of low to high swaps decreased significantly, and the overall cost remained almost unchanged, so it was still $6.2w. (Figure 2) From the data of the past 10 years, it can be seen that when BTC experiences major setbacks, PSIP will significantly decrease, but compared to the previous' bottom ', it is getting higher and higher. For example, in 2019 it was 40%, in 3.12 Black Swan it was 45%, and in FTX Thunderstorm it was 50% This indicates that BTC's ability to resist attacks is becoming stronger and stronger. Therefore, we have every reason to believe that the PSIP for the bottom reconstruction in 2026 is likely to exceed 50%! We assume it is 55%, so the BTC price calculated based on current conditions is $72000; That is to say, the reasonable range for the future bottom range should be between $62000 and $72000, or above $72000; (Figure 3) Coincidentally, a foreign analyst in the English community drew a "Bitcoin Power Law Price Model" chart, and over time, when the deviation of BTC price returns to the lower trajectory of the power law, it coincides with the price range I calculated. Just different methods and perspectives, but this is by no means a groundless prediction, but a dynamic center of "macro cost anchor+time function" given to BTC by time. Short term distortion can occur, but it is difficult to violate in the long term. (To avoid misunderstandings, it is necessary to add that it is not a prediction of what price BTC will fall to in 2026, but rather about where the reasonable range would be if a bottom reconstruction occurs.)? ） ---------------------------------------------- Bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits