BITWU.ETH 🔆|Jan 12, 2026 02:50
Last week's focus: Funds changing tracks, continuous fluctuations, opportunities and prospects——
one ️⃣ Continuous oscillation:
The core contradiction in the cryptocurrency market over the past week is not emotions, but rather the funding structure: the decline in BTC and ETH mainly comes from the continuous net outflow of spot ETFs, indicating that they are still in a state of volatility.
two ️⃣ Institutional performance:
The high selling pressure is concentrated on high rate/old products (GBTC, FBTC, ETHE), and BlackRock's IBIT and ETHA still maintain net inflows, indicating that the institution has not withdrawn, but is only changing warehouses.
three ️⃣ SOL has become the relatively strongest narrative medium:
Against the backdrop of net outflows from BTC/ETH ETFs, SOL ETFs continue to experience net inflows, coupled with the new packaging of "ETF+Staking returns" that can be understood by traditional funds.
four ️⃣ Ethereum Opportunities:
Ethereum expansion is moving from a roadmap to parameter implementation (blob capacity increase), which may not necessarily be reflected in the price in the short term, but will reshape the L2 cost curve and DA narrative in the medium term.
five ️⃣ The most important transaction lead currently is:
Monitor whether ETF outflows are depleted and whether SOL continues to receive incremental funds.
six ️⃣ Macroeconomics and geopolitics are 'volatility amplifiers':
Employment/interest rate expectations and tail risks such as the Venezuela event will amplify pullbacks and injections during weekends and low liquidity periods, but they are more like disturbances than trends themselves.
seven ️⃣ Opportunity window:
If the total outflow of BTC/ETH ETF significantly converges or even turns positive in the next one to two weeks, while SOL ETF still maintains net inflow, it is likely to experience a structural market where funds first pull relatively strong assets and then replenish the mainstream. This is a relative strength/rotation opportunity with a higher winning rate than the bet direction.
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