[CME 'FedWatch' Predicts an 11.6% Probability of Fed Rate Cut in January] According to CME 'FedWatch,' the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January is 11.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 88.4%. By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 40.3%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 55.4%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 4.3%.