[Probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in January is 81.7%] CME 'FedWatch' data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January is 18.3%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 81.7%. By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 43.2%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 49.6%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 7.2%.