The US military launched a raid in Venezuela to capture Maduro, causing BTC to briefly drop to 89k before being pulled back by mysterious buying. On Polymarket, traders had heavily bet in advance on 'Maduro stepping down,' turning into overnight millionaires. Prediction markets are redefining the mechanism for discovering the value of information. When geopolitical risks can be quantified and traded, traditional hedging logic might need to be reconsidered.