GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN RISK FALLS TO 29% As of early January 2026, Kalshi markets put the chance of a U.S. government shutdown on Jan. 31 at just 29%, down from 40–48% last month. Why the risk is falling: • Unified Republican control reduces the likelihood of gridlock • The 2025 funding deal already covers roughly 85–95% of spending through Sept. 2026, limiting any potential shutdown • Lawmakers want to avoid another unpopular shutdown ahead of the 2026 midterms • Markets now imply a 71% chance a deal is reached on time https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgovshut/government-shutdown/kxgovshut-26jan31?utm_source=walterbloomberg(*Walter Bloomberg)