星球日报
星球日报|Dec 31, 2025 08:43
[Shaw: Quantum Computing Is Still Extremely Far from Breaking Bitcoin] Odaily Planet Daily News – Shaw posted on the X platform, stating that there is a significant gap between the actual progress of quantum computing and the media hype or public perception. Although progress is being made in this field, quantum computers will not achieve their purported capabilities within the next 40 to 50 years. Regarding hash functions like SHA-256, even with the most ideal Grover's algorithm, the search space can only be reduced from 2 to the power of 256 to 2 to the power of 128, and 2 to the power of 128 remains physically unbreakable. Shaw pointed out that the most advanced quantum computers today, without knowing the result in advance, cannot even factorize the number 21 into 3 and 7. To break Bitcoin, quantum computers would need to repeatedly compute the real-time network within minutes, a leap in capability far exceeding the progress from 1950s computers to modern server clusters. Modern cryptography was designed with future computational power growth in mind. The current fear or hype surrounding quantum computing lacks factual basis.
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